8- Project Risk Management

Public Channel / PMP Material

Share on Social Networks

Share Link

Use permanent link to share in social media

Share with a friend

Please login to send this presentation by email!

Embed in your website

Select page to start with

Post comment with email address (confirmation of email is required in order to publish comment on website) or please login to post comment

47. 47 Monitor and control risks

5. 5 Manage Risk "Sooner better Than Later..."

1. Project Risk Management Unit 11

18. 18 11.1 Plan Risk Management

30. 30 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

37. 37 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

44. 44 11.5 Plan Risk Responses

48. 48 Questions .

63. 63 Thank you .

34. 34 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Decision Tree Example (EMV)

59. 59 6 ) What risk management process MOST affects the project management plan ? A ) Identify risks. B ) Perform quantitative risk analysis. C ) Plan risk responses. D ) Monitor and control risks.

60. 60 6 ) What risk management process NOST affects the project management plan ? A ) Identify risks. B ) Perform quantitative risk analysis. C ) Plan risk responses. D ) Monitor and control risks.

39. 39 • Risk Register (Inputs) • Risk Management Plan (Inputs) 11.5 Plan Risk Responses

26. 26 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis • Risk Probability and Impact Assessment (Tools & Techniques) • Probability and Impact Matrix (Tools & Techniques)

16. 16 11.1 Plan Risk Management Risk Management Plan (Output) • Risk categories : – Provides a structure for identifying risk categories.

57. 57 5 ) A project manager that you have been mentoring has completed risk response planning and has a risk response plan. What is the NEXT thing the project manager should do ? A ) Revise the project management plan. B ) Recommend corrective action. C ) Update the risk identification checklist. D ) Create risk response strategies.

58. 58 5 ) A project manager that you have been mentoring has completed risk response planning and has a risk response plan. What is the NEXT thing the project manager should do ? A ) Revise the project management plan. B ) Recommend corrective action. C ) Update the risk identification checklist. D ) Create risk response strategies.

51. 51 2 ) A project manager is working on a major new product development project when a risk occurs that does not have a risk response plan. What should the project manager do? A ) Hold a risk reassessment, and plan a workaround. b ) Inform management, and communicate the new risk to the team. C ) communicate the planned response to the stakeholders. D ) Use some of the reserves to accommodate the risk.

52. 52 2 ) A project manager is working on a major new product development project when a risk occurs that does not have a risk response plan. What should the project manager do? A ) Hold a risk reassessment, and plan a workaround. b ) Inform management, and communicate the new risk to the team. C ) communicate the planned response to the stakeholders. D ) Use some of the reserves to accommodate the risk.

53. 53 3 ) One of the risks your team has discovered is a high probability that the equipment you are developing will not perform under the pressure it needs to in the work place. In order to handle this risk, you have chosen to prototype the equipment. This is an example of risk: A ) Mitigation. B ) Avoidance. C ) Transference. D ) acceptance.

54. 54 3 ) One of the risks your team has discovered is a high probability that the equipment you are developing will not perform under the pressure it needs to in the work place. In order to handle this risk, you have chosen to prototype the equipment. This is an example of risk: A ) Mitigation. B ) Avoidance. C ) Transference. D ) acceptance.

55. 55 4 ) Residual risks are risks that remain after risk response planning. Secondary risks are : A ) Planning risks that are no longer a factor during project executing B ) Discovered during risk identification. C ) New risks created by the risk response strategies selected. D ) Lower priority risks not requiring mitigation efforts.

56. 56 4 ) Residual risks are risks that remain after risk response planning. Secondary risks are : A ) Planning risks that are no longer a factor during project executing B ) Discovered during risk identification. C ) New risks created by the risk response strategies selected. D ) Lower priority risks not requiring mitigation efforts.

31. 31 - The process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. - Performed on the risks that have been prioritized by the perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process. - It present a quantitative approach to making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

8. 8 11.1 Plan Risk Management Define how to conduct risk management activities for a project. 11.2 Identify Risks Determine which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Prioritize risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact. Project Risk Management

9. 9 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Numerically analyze the effect of identified risks on the project objectives. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses Develop options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives. 11.6 Monitor and Control Risks Implement risk response plans, tracking identified risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project. Project Risk Management

24. 24 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis • The process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact. • Organizations can improve the projects performance by focusing on high priority risks. • The process of assessing the impact and likelihood of identified risks.

61. 61 7 ) A team member assigned to the project needs two days of training to satisfactorily complete certain activities. No one else with the necessary skills is available to the project team. What is the BEST thing to do? A ) Add two days to the schedule and inform management of the delay. B ) Ask management for additional personnel because you cannot afford the extra schedule time. C ) Offer a bonus to the project team member if he gets the training in his own time. D ) include training in the project management plan.

62. 62 7 ) A team member assigned to the project needs two days of training to satisfactorily complete certain activities. No one else with the necessary skills is available to the project team. What is the BEST thing to do? A ) Add two days to the schedule and inform management of the delay. B ) Ask management for additional personnel because you cannot afford the extra schedule time. C ) Offer a bonus to the project team member if he gets the training in his own time. D ) include training in the project management plan.

10. 10 11.1 Plan Risk Management • Plan risk management is the process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project • Why do we have to plan risk management?  Planning is so important to provide sufficient resources and time for risk management.  Risk management planning should be performed as early in the project as possible Plan the Work and Work the Plan

22. 22 Risk Register (Output) Will ultimately contain the outcomes of the other risk management processes: – List of identified risk • EVENT may occur, causing IMPACT, • If CAUSE, EVENT may occur, leading to EFFECT. – List of identified potential risk responses 11.2 Identify Risks

25. 25 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis • Risk Register (Inputs) • Risk Management Plan (Inputs) • Project scope statement (Inputs) • Organizational Process Assets (Inputs)

27. 27 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis • Risk Data Quality Assessment (Tools & Techniques) • Risk Categorization (Tools & Techniques) • Risk Urgency Assessment (Tools & Techniques) • Expert judgment (Tools & Techniques)

35. 35 Risk register updates (Outputs) • Probabilistic analysis of the project  Listing the possible completion dates and costs with their associated confidence levels. • Probability of achieving cost and time objectives • Prioritized list of quantified risks • Trends in quantitative risk analysis results 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

33. 33 • Data gathering and Representation Techniques (Tools) • Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques (Tools) – Sensitivity analysis. • Helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project • Expert judgment (Tools) 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

32. 32 • Risk Register (Inputs) • Risk Management Plan (Inputs) • Cost Management Plan (Inputs) • Schedule Management Plan (Inputs) • Organizational Process Assets (Inputs) 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

2. 2 What is risk? • Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective • All projects have risks • Uncertainty • Probability • Impact • Positive or Negative

45. 45 The process of implementing risk response plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project Can involve: • Choosing alternative strategies. • Executing a contingency plan. • Tracking corrective action. • Modifying the project management plan. • Updating the organizational process assets. 11.6 Monitor and Control Risks

41. 41 • Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities (Tools) Exploit This strategy may be selected for risks with positive impacts where the organization wishes to ensure that the opportunity is realized. Share Sharing a positive risk involves allocating some or all of the ownership of the opportunity to a third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project. Enhance This strategy is used to increase the probability and/or the positive impacts of an opportunity. Accept Accepting an opportunity is being willing to take advantage of it if it comes along, but not actively pursuing it. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses

4. 4 Project Manager's Role in Risk Management • Identifying and understanding risks. • Planning to handle risks. • Incorporating risk management into the project management. • Planning processes. • Monitoring and controlling risk on a regular basis. • Looking forward and being proactive. • Communicating effectively about risk to appropriate project stakeholders. • Maintaining Risk Management Plan documentation.

12. 12 11.1 Plan Risk Management • Planning Meetings and Analysis (Tools & Techniques) – Project teams hold planning meetings to develop the risk management plan. – High - level plans for conducting the risk management activities and Cost elements are defined in these meetings. – Risk contingency reserve application approaches may be established or reviewed. – Risk management responsibilities will be assigned.

38. 38 • The process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives. • Includes the identification and assignment of one person ( the “ risk response owner ” ) to take responsibility for each agreed - to and funded risk response. • Addresses the risks by their priority, inserting resources and activities into the budget, schedule, and project management plan as needed. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses

15. 15 11.1 Plan Risk Management Risk Management Plan (Output) • Definitions of risk probability and impact : – The quality and credibility of the perform qualitative risk analysis process requires that different levels of the risks “ probabilities and impacts be defined Risk Impact H M L L M H R isk Probability

28. 28 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis • Risk Register Updates (Outputs) – Relative ranking or priority list of project risks. – Risks grouped by categories. – Causes of risk or project areas requiring particular attention. – List of risks requiring response in the near - term. – List of risks for additional analysis and response. – Trends in qualitative risk analysis results.

20. 20 • Risk Management Plan (Inputs) • Activity Cost Estimates (Inputs) • Activity Duration Estimates (Inputs) • Scope Baseline (Inputs) • Stakeholder Register (Inputs) • Organizational Process Assets (Inputs) 11.2 Identify Risks

11. 11 11.1 Plan Risk Management • Project Scope Statement (Inputs) • Cost Management Plan (Inputs) • Schedule Management Plan (Inputs) • Communications Management Plan (Inputs) • Enterprise Environmental Factors (Inputs) • Organizational Process Assets (Inputs)

13. 13 11.1 Plan Risk Management Risk Management Plan (Output) • Roles and responsibilities : – Defines the risk management team members for each type of activity in the risk management plan, and clarifies their responsibilities. • Budgeting : – Assign resources, estimates funds needed for risk management. • Timing : – Define when and how often the risk management processes will be performed , – Establishes schedule contingency reserves, and – Establishes risk management activities to be included in the project schedule

3. 3 Project Risk Management • Project risk management includes the processes of conducting risk management planning, identifications, analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control on a project. • The objectives of project risk management are to increase the probability and the impact of positive events (opportunity), and decrease the probability and impact of negative events (threats) in the project. characteristics of risk management ( continuous - iterative – ongoing )

40. 40 • Strategies for negative Risks or Threats (Tools) Avoid  Changing the project management plan to eliminate the threat entirely.  The project manager may change the objective that is in jeopardy. Transfer  Transferring the risk simply gives another party responsibility for its management. (Assurance, Warranties, ... .) Mitigate  Implies a reduction an the probability and/or impact of an adverse risk event to be within acceptable threshold limits. Accept  This strategy is adopted because it is seldom possible to eliminate all the threats from a project 11.5 Plan Risk Responses

6. 6 Risk sources Internal sources  Financial  Production  Human Resources  Administrative  Strategic Preference External sources  Economical  Competition  Social/Cultural  Regulatory  Political

7. 7 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.2 Identify risks 11.5 plan Risk Response Planning Monitoring & Controlling 11.6 Monitor & Control Risks 11.1 Plan risk management Project Risk Management

14. 14 11.1 Plan Risk Management Risk Management Plan (Output) • Probability and impact matrix : – Risks are prioritized according to their potential implications for having an effect on the projects objectives. • Revised stakeholders ” tolerances : – Stakeholders ” tolerances , as they apply to the specific project, may be revised in the plan risk management process • Reporting formats : – Defines how the outcomes of the risk management processes will be documented, analyzed, and communicated

19. 19 • Determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics Who should be involved in the identify risks process? • ( project manager – project team members – subject matter experts – other project managers – risk management team (if assigned) – stakeholders – end users ) (all project personnel should be encouraged to identify risks) • Identify risks is an iterative process throughout the project life cycle. 11.2 Identify Risks

29. 29 inputs 1. Risk Register 2. Risk management plan 3. Project scope statement 4. Organizational process assets Tools & techniques 1. Risk probability and impact assessment 2. Probability and impact matrix 3. Risk data quality assessment 4. Risk categorization 5. Risk urgency assessment 6. Expert judgment outputs 1. Risk Register updates 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

36. 36 inputs 1. Risk register 2. Risk management plan 3. Cost management plan 4. Schedule management plan 5. Organizational process assets Tools & techniques 1. Data gathering and representation technique 2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques 3. Expert judgment outputs 1. Risk Register updates 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

21. 21 • Documentation Reviews (Tools & Techniques) • Information gathering Techniques (Tools & Techniques) – Brainstorming. – Delphi technique. – Interviewing. • Checklist Analysis (Tools & Techniques) • Assumptions Analysis (Tools & Techniques) • Diagramming Techniques (Tools & Techniques) – Cause and effect diagrams – System or process flow charts. • SWOT Analysis (Tools & Techniques) • Expert judgment (Tools & Techniques) 11.2 Identify Risks

43. 43 Inputs 1. Risk register 2. Risk management plan Tools & techniques 1. Strategies for negative risks or threats 2. Strategies for positive risks or opportunities 3. Contingent response strategies 4. Expert judgments outputs 1. Risk register updates 2. Risk - related contract decisions 3. Project management plan updates 4. Project document updates 11.5 Plan Risk Responses

17. 17 inputs 1 - project scope statement 2 - cost management plan 3 - schedule management plan 4 - communication management plan 5 - enterprise environmental factors 6 - Organizational process assets Tools & techniques 1 - Planning meetings and analysis Outputs 1 - risk management plan 11.1 Plan Risk Management

46. 46 Monitor and control risks inputs 1. Risk register 2. project management plan 3. Work performance information 4. Performance reports Tools & techniques 1. Risk reassessment 2. Risk audits 3. Variance and trend analysis 4. Technical performance measurements 5. Reserve analysis 6. Status meetings outputs 1. Risk register updates 2. Organizational process assets updates 3. Change requests 4. Project management plan updates 5. Project document updates

42. 42 • Risk Register Updates (Outputs) – Identified risks, their descriptions, areas of the project effected, their causes, and how they may affect project objectives. – Risk owners and assigned responsibilities – Agreed - upon response strategies – Specific actions to implement the chosen response strategy – Triggers, symptoms, and warning signs of risks ’ occurrence; – Contingency plans and triggers that call for their execution; – Residual risks; – Secondary risks; – Contingency reserves. • Risk - Related Contract Decisions (Outputs) • Project Management Plan Updates (Outputs) • Project Document Updates (Outputs) 11.5 Plan Risk Responses

23. 23 Inputs 1 - Risk management plan 2 - Activity cost estimates 3 - Activity duration estimates 4 - Scope baseline 5 - Stakeholder register 6 - C ost Management Plan 7 - S chedule Management Plan 8 - Quality Management Plan 9 - Project Documents 10 - Enterprise Environmental Factors 11 - Organizational process assets tools & techniques 1 - Documentation reviews 2 - Information gathering techniques 3 - Chechlist analysis 4 - Assumptions analysis 5 - Diagramming techniques 6 - SWOT analysis 7 - Expert judgment outputs 1 - Risk Register 11.2 Identify Risks

49. 49 1 ) A project team is trying to decrease risks on the project . Management has a good relationship with a seller who is experienced in areas that your company is not experienced in . Management wants all activities with a U . S . $ 50000 or higher risks to be transferred to that seller . Management believes that this will remove the impact of those higher risks from the project . Why would this NOT be effective? A ) working with sellers add more than the $ 50000 of risk to the project B ) You would have to go through the contracting process. C ) the transference of a risk does not remove all impacts of the risk. D ) Management ’ s association with the seller is a conflict of interest for the project.

50. 50 1 ) A project team is trying to decrease risks on the project . Management has a good relationship with a seller who is experienced in areas that your company is not experienced in . Management wants all activities with a U . S . $ 50000 or higher risks to be transferred to that seller . Management believes that this will remove the impact of those higher risks from the project . Why would this NOT be effective? A ) working with sellers add more than the $ 50000 of risk to the project B ) You would have to go through the contracting process. C ) the transference of a risk does not remove all impacts of the risk. D ) Management ’ s association with the seller is a conflict of interest for the project.

Views

  • 270 Total Views
  • 200 Website Views
  • 70 Embeded Views

Actions

  • 0 Social Shares
  • 0 Likes
  • 0 Dislikes
  • 0 Comments

Share count

  • 0 Facebook
  • 0 Twitter
  • 0 LinkedIn
  • 0 Google+

Embeds 2

  • 2 www.elsaka.com
  • 2 elsaka.com